FanDuel and DraftKings Spent $15M on Nebraska. Kalshi Didn't Need To.

On November 3, Nebraska voters will decide whether to let FanDuel and DraftKings operate legally in their state. The two companies have each spent $7.04 million on the campaign ... and their biggest competition is already inside the building.

Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest CFTC-registered prediction markets, are already offering sports contracts in Nebraska without state authorization, per Bitcoin.com's iGaming desk. Nebraska has not sued them. It has not issued a cease-and-desist. The federal CFTC regulates prediction markets as commodity exchanges, and state gambling law does not apply.

A Flatwater Free Press analysis found that Kalshi and Polymarket users put an average of $5.5 million on each Nebraska Cornhuskers football game last season, cited by Bitcoin.com. That is not the market waiting to open. That is the market that opened quietly, through a loophole, while the ballot campaign spent $14.65 million arguing about the front door.

What the ballot actually does

The two measures are complementary. One would amend the state constitution to authorize online sports wagering. The other writes the regulatory framework into statute: up to 12 licensed mobile sportsbooks, with servers required in Nebraska, each company limited to two platforms. Nebraska already allows in-person betting at four retail gaming facilities. The ballot would add the phone.

Industry analysis commissioned by Tax Relief Nebraska projects $86.9 million in total sports betting tax revenue over five years, with 70% directed toward property tax credits. Supporters framed the ballot as a property tax relief measure. The campaign's television advertising budget was $1.71 million in the latest reporting period alone.

Nebraska is one of the last holdouts in a region where everyone else has already moved. Every neighboring state except South Dakota allows online sports betting. The campaign's own research found that over 2,800 Nebraska residents crossed state lines to place legal bets during the 2024 to 2025 NFL season.

The ballot fight is about revenue, not access

Here is the part that makes this a more interesting fight than the usual state legalization vote: FanDuel and DraftKings have already launched their own prediction market products to work around Nebraska's online sports betting restrictions. So the companies spending $14.65 million to get licensed are simultaneously operating in Nebraska's gray zone, alongside Kalshi and Polymarket, through the same federal loophole.

The ballot win, if it happens, is not about whether Nebraskans can bet on the Huskers online. They already can. It is about which companies collect the licensed tax revenue, hold the regulated brand positions, and get to advertise legally in the state. Kalshi can operate as a CFTC exchange. It cannot run a Super Bowl ad in Nebraska telling locals to sign up. FanDuel can.

This is the same structural tension we covered when Novig launched its Sydney Sweeney campaign in September. As this desk explained then: prediction markets can do things sportsbooks cannot, including the Sweeney-style equity deal and provocative marketing that state-licensed operators have to avoid. The Nebraska ballot is the other side of that equation. Sportsbooks can win votes in state capitals. Prediction markets can only wait for the CFTC to stay quiet.

The opposition has one honest argument

The Nebraska Family Alliance leads organized opposition, raising concerns about money flowing to out-of-state corporations, youth exposure to advertising, and social costs that campaign projections do not quantify, per Covers.com. FanDuel is majority-owned by Flutter Entertainment, an Irish company. DraftKings is incorporated in Delaware with offices in Boston. The "property tax relief" framing does not change the fact that most of the revenue leaves the state.

That argument applies equally to the prediction markets already operating there. It has not stopped Kalshi. The Nebraska Family Alliance's real problem is that the regulatory race between sportsbooks and prediction markets will resolve at the federal level, and state ballot campaigns only determine which team gets the licensed revenue share while the battle plays out.

November 3 is three weeks away. The $14.65 million is already spent. The Huskers are 5 and 1 entering their bye week, and Kalshi users have been trading their games all season.

Ad Watch News is an independent commentary site with no affiliation with FanDuel, DraftKings, Kalshi, Novig, or any brand or outlet mentioned here. We cover celebrity news and the business of entertainment.

FanDuel and DraftKings Spent $15M on Nebraska. Kalshi Didn't Need To.

What the ballot actually does

The ballot fight is about revenue, not access

The opposition has one honest argument

Sources & further reading

Cassie: 'It's Called Monetisation.' Sweeney's SYRN Agrees.

Sweeney: 'Grown Men Making Spreadsheets to Bet on My Underwear Color'

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