$836 Million Is Riding on Prediction Markets That Missed Wisconsin at 95 Percent
Kalshi put the wrong candidate at 95.9% to win Wisconsin's Democratic primary for governor. David Crowley won. Now the midterms are Tuesday and $836 million in bets will grade whether anything changed.
At a glance
- 95.9% was wrong
- Kalshi's market had Francesca Hong at 95.9% to win Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary on August 11, 2026. David Crowley won by a razor-thin margin. The 95% figure appeared in a @KalshiPolitics tweet; Kalshi's own data showed 4.2% odds for the winner.
- $836M in midterm bets
- Kalshi's Midterms Hub showed more than $836 million in trading volume as of October 6, 2026, covering contracts on House and Senate control. The midterms are November 3.
- Brier scores coming
- On October 6, Kalshi announced it would add Brier score accuracy tracking, low-trader warnings, and real-time trade displays to every US midterm election market. The scores will measure how closely its pre-election probabilities matched outcomes.
On August 11, 2026, the @KalshiPolitics account posted the odds for Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary: Francesca Hong at 95%, David Crowley at 5%. Crowley won by a razor-thin margin. Kalshi's own data, cited by MEAWW, put Hong at 95.9% and Crowley at 4.2% before polls closed.
A month and a half later, Kalshi announced new transparency measures for every US midterm election market. The platform said it would add Brier scores to show how closely market probabilities have tracked past results, warnings for markets with relatively few traders, and real-time displays of individual trades. The company said it wanted to put its markets "in context."
People are turning to prediction markets because they offer something traditional forecasts can't: a bottom-up signal built from the collective judgment of everyone participating.
Mansour called 2026 "the first election after prediction markets have gone mainstream," per MEAWW's October 6 report. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara offered a more direct response to the Wisconsin miss: "5% is not 0%," she said, pointing out that a low-probability outcome can still happen.
Eight Hundred Million Dollars Will Decide Who Was Right
Kalshi's Midterms Hub showed more than $836 million in trading volume as of October 6, 2026, according to a photo caption in MEAWW's report. That figure covers contracts on control of the House and Senate. The midterms are November 3. In five days, the Brier scores will have actual outcomes to measure against.
The accuracy question does not live in a vacuum. On September 25, the Sixth Circuit ruled Ohio and Tennessee could enforce their gambling laws against Kalshi's sports-event contracts, rejecting Kalshi's argument that federal commodities law preempted state regulation. Congress is separately weighing oversight, with concerns about insider trading and whether the platforms sidestep state gambling rules, per The National News Desk.
Insider trading has already produced enforcement action. Former Rep. George Santos was penalized by Kalshi for betting on whether he would attend the State of the Union. Gabriel Perez, a former White House teleprompter operator, was ordered to return profits from bets placed on words that would appear in President Trump's speeches.
What Changes After Tuesday
Matthew Bakowicz, director of the sports management program at American University and a former operations official for DraftKings, told The National News Desk the new safeguards are a starting point, not a solution. "You then have to have an agency that has the ability to monitor this, investigate everything, and of course bring people to justice or flag things that look inappropriate," he said. His broader concern: election markets create a category of potential insider that sports markets do not have.
"You have people that are a lot more involved in these markets that could turn nefarious versus the sports markets, where unless you really have access to the player or coach, you really only can put down money and hope that the right outcome happens," Bakowicz said.
Kalshi and Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment on the accuracy question beyond the statements already reported. The Brier scores Kalshi announced will be posted publicly. The midterms are November 3.
